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Machine Learning Basics for a Newbie
6 Steps of Machine learning Lifecycle Introduction to Predictive Modeling
Introduction to Exploratory Data Analysis & Data Insights Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics How to Understand Population Distributions?
Reading Data Files into Python Different Variable Datatypes
Probability for Data Science Basic Concepts of Probability Axioms of Probability Conditional Probability
Central Tendencies for Continuous Variables Spread of Data KDE plots for Continuous Variable Overview of Distribution for Continuous variables Normal Distribution Skewed Distribution Skeweness and Kurtosis Distribution for Continuous Variable
Central Tendencies for Categorical Variables Understanding Discrete Distributions Performing EDA on Categorical Variables
Dealing with Missing Values Understanding Outliers Identifying Outliers in Data Outlier Detection in Python Outliers Detection Using IQR, Z-score, LOF and DBSCAN
Sample and Population Central Limit Theorem Confidence Interval and Margin of Error
Bivariate Analysis Introduction
Covariance Pearson Correlation Spearman's Correlation & Kendall's Tau Correlation versus Causation Tabular and Graphical methods for Bivariate Analysis Performing Bivariate Analysis on Continuous-Continuous Variables
Tabular and Graphical methods for Continuous-Categorical Variables Introduction to Hypothesis Testing P-value Two sample Z-test T-test T-test vs Z-test Performing Bivariate Analysis on Continuous-Catagorical variables
Chi-Squares Test Bivariate Analysis on Categorical Categorical Variables
Multivariate Analysis A Comprehensive Guide to Data Exploration The Data Science behind IPL
Supervised Learning vs Unsupervised Learning Reinforcement Learning Generative and Descriminative Models Parametric and Non Parametric model
Machine Learning Pipeline Preparing Dataset Build a Benchmark Model: Regression Build a Benchmark Model: Classification
Evaluation Metrics for Machine Learning Everyone should know Confusion Matrix Accuracy Precision and Recall AUC-ROC Log Loss R2 and Adjusted R2
Dealing with Missing Values Replacing Missing Values Imputing Missing Values in Data Working with Categorical Variables Working with Outliers Preprocessing Data for Model Building
Understanding Cost Function Understanding Gradient Descent Math Behind Gradient Descent Assumptions of Linear Regression Implement Linear Regression from Scratch Train Linear Regression in Python Implementing Linear Regression in R Diagnosing Residual Plots in Linear Regression Models Generalized Linear Models Introduction to Logistic Regression Odds Ratio Implementing Logistic Regression from Scratch Introduction to Scikit-learn in Python Train Logistic Regression in python Multiclass using Logistic Regression How to use Multinomial and Ordinal Logistic Regression in R ? Challenges with Linear Regression Introduction to Regularisation Implementing Regularisation Ridge Regression Lasso Regression
Introduction to K Nearest Neighbours Determining the Right Value of K in KNN Implement KNN from Scratch Implement KNN in Python
Bias Variance Tradeoff Introduction to Overfitting and Underfitting Visualizing Overfitting and Underfitting Selecting the Right Model What is Validation? Hold-Out Validation Understanding K Fold Cross Validation
Introduction to Feature Selection Feature Selection Algorithms Missing Value Ratio Low Variance Filter High Correlation Filter Backward Feature Elimination Forward Feature Selection Implement Feature Selection in Python Implement Feature Selection in R
Introduction to Decision Tree Purity in Decision Tree Terminologies Related to Decision Tree How to Select Best Split Point in Decision Tree? Chi-Squares Information Gain Reduction in Variance Optimizing Performance of Decision Tree Train Decision Tree using Scikit Learn Pruning of Decision Trees
Introduction to Feature Engineering Feature Transformation Feature Scaling Feature Engineering Frequency Encoding Automated Feature Engineering: Feature Tools
Introduction to Naive Bayes Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem Introduction to Bayesian Adjustment Rating: The Incredible Concept Behind Online Ratings! Working of Naive Bayes Math behind Naive Bayes Types of Naive Bayes Implementation of Naive Bayes
Understanding how to solve Multiclass and Multilabled Classification Problem Evaluation Metrics: Multi Class Classification
Introduction to Ensemble Techniques Basic Ensemble Techniques Implementing Basic Ensemble Techniques Finding Optimal Weights of Ensemble Learner using Neural Network Why Ensemble Models Work well?
Introduction to Stacking Implementing Stacking Variants of Stacking Implementing Variants of Stacking Introduction to Blending Bootstrap Sampling Introduction to Random Sampling Hyper-parameters of Random Forest Implementing Random Forest Out-of-Bag (OOB) Score in the Random Forest IPL Team Win Prediction Project Using Machine Learning Introduction to Boosting Gradient Boosting Algorithm Math behind GBM Implementing GBM in python Regularized Greedy Forests Extreme Gradient Boosting Implementing XGBM in python Tuning Hyperparameters of XGBoost in Python Implement XGBM in R/H2O Adaptive Boosting Implementing Adaptive Boosing LightGBM Implementing LightGBM in Python Catboost Implementing Catboost in Python
Different Hyperparameter Tuning methods Implementing Different Hyperparameter Tuning methods GridsearchCV RandomizedsearchCV Bayesian Optimization for Hyperparameter Tuning Hyperopt
Understanding SVM Algorithm SVM Kernels In-depth Intuition and Practical Implementation SVM Kernel Tricks Kernels and Hyperparameters in SVM Implementing SVM from Scratch in Python and R
Introduction to Principal Component Analysis Steps to Perform Principal Compound Analysis Computation of Covariance Matrix Finding Eigenvectors and Eigenvalues Implementing PCA in python Visualizing PCA A Brief Introduction to Linear Discriminant Analysis Introduction to Factor Analysis
Introduction to Clustering Applications of Clustering Evaluation Metrics for Clustering Understanding K-Means Implementation of K-Means in Python Implementation of K-Means in R Choosing Right Value for K Profiling Market Segments using K-Means Clustering Hierarchical Clustering Implementation of Hierarchial Clustering DBSCAN Defining Similarity between clusters Build Better and Accurate Clusters with Gaussian Mixture Models
Understand Basics of Recommendation Engine with Case Study
8 Ways to Improve Accuracy of Machine Learning Models
Introduction to Dask Working with CuML
Introduction to Machine Learning Interpretability Framework and Interpretable Models model Agnostic Methods for Interpretability Implementing Interpretable Model Understanding SHAP Out-of-Core ML Introduction to Interpretable Machine Learning Models Model Agnostic Methods for Interpretability Game Theory & Shapley Values
Introduction to Machine Learning Interpretability Framework and Interpretable Models model Agnostic Methods for Interpretability Implementing Interpretable Model Understanding SHAP Out-of-Core ML Introduction to Interpretable Machine Learning Models Model Agnostic Methods for Interpretability Game Theory & Shapley Values
Introduction to AutoML Implementation of MLBox Introduction to PyCaret TPOT Auto-Sklearn EvalML
Pickle and Joblib Introduction to Model Deployment
Deploying Machine Learning Model using Streamlit Deploying ML Models in Docker Deploy Using Streamlit Deploy on Heroku Deploy Using Netlify Introduction to Amazon Sagemaker Setting up Amazon SageMaker Using SageMaker Endpoint to Generate Inference Deploy on Microsoft Azure Cloud Introduction to Flask for Model Deploying ML model using Flask
Model Deployment in Android Model Deployment in Iphone

Introduction to Random forest – Simplified

Tavish Srivastava
Tavish Srivastava Last Updated : 25 Jun, 2020
5 min read

alienvshuman

With increase in computational power, we can now choose algorithms which perform very intensive calculations. One such algorithm is “Random Forest”, which we will discuss in this article. While the algorithm is very popular in various competitions (e.g. like the ones running on Kaggle), the end output of the model is like a black box and hence should be used judiciously.

Before going any further, here is an example on the importance of choosing the best algorithm.

 

Importance of choosing the right algorithm

Yesterday, I saw a movie called ” Edge of tomorrow“.  I loved the concept and the thought process which went behind the plot of this movie. Let me summarize the plot (without commenting on the climax, of course). Unlike other sci-fi movies, this movie revolves around one single power which is given to both the sides (hero and villain). The power being the ability to reset the day.

Human race is at war with an alien species called “Mimics”.  Mimic is described as a far more evolved civilization of an alien species. Entire Mimic civilization is like a single complete organism. It has a central brain called “Omega” which commands all other organisms in the civilization. It stays in contact with all other species of the civilization every single second. “Alpha” is the main warrior species (like the nervous system) of this civilization and takes command from “Omega”. “Omega” has the power to reset the day at any point of time.

Now, let’s wear the hat of a predictive analyst to analyze this plot. If a system has the ability to reset the day at any point of time, it will use this power, whenever any of its warrior species die. And, hence there will be no single war ,when any of the warrior species (alpha) will actually die, and the brain “Omega” will repeatedly test the best case scenario to maximize the death of human race and put a constraint on number of deaths of alpha (warrior species) to be zero every single day. You can imagine this as “THE BEST” predictive algorithm ever made. It is literally impossible to defeat such an algorithm.

Let’s now get back to “Random Forests” using a case study.

Case Study

Following is a distribution of Annual income Gini Coefficients across different countries :

oecd-income_inequality_2013_2

Mexico has the second highest Gini coefficient and hence has a very high segregation in annual income of rich and poor. Our task is to come up with an accurate predictive algorithm to estimate annual income bracket of each individual in Mexico. The brackets of income are as follows :

1. Below $40,000

2. $40,000 – 150,000

3. More than $150,000

Following are the information available for each individual :

1. Age , 2. Gender,  3. Highest educational qualification, 4. Working in Industry, 5. Residence in Metro/Non-metro

We need to come up with an algorithm to give an accurate prediction for an individual who has following traits:

1. Age : 35 years , 2, Gender : Male , 3. Highest Educational Qualification : Diploma holder, 4. Industry : Manufacturing, 5. Residence : Metro

We will only talk about random forest to make this prediction in this article.

 

The algorithm of Random Forest

Random forest is like bootstrapping algorithm with Decision tree (CART) model. Say, we have 1000 observation in the complete population with 10 variables. Random forest tries to build multiple CART models with different samples and different initial variables. For instance, it will take a random sample of 100 observation and 5 randomly chosen initial variables to build a CART model. It will repeat the process (say) 10 times and then make a final prediction on each observation. Final prediction is a function of each prediction. This final prediction can simply be the mean of each prediction.

 

Back to Case  study

Disclaimer : The numbers in this article are illustrative

Mexico has a population of 118 MM. Say, the algorithm Random forest picks up 10k observation with only one variable (for simplicity) to build each CART model. In total, we are looking at 5 CART model being built with different variables. In a real life problem, you will have more number of population sample and different combinations of  input variables.

Salary bands :

Band 1 : Below $40,000

Band 2: $40,000 – 150,000

Band 3: More than $150,000

Following are the outputs of the 5 different CART model.

CART 1 : Variable Age

rf1

CART 2 : Variable Gender

rf2

CART 3 : Variable Education

rf3

CART 4 : Variable Residence

rf4

CART 5 : Variable Industry

rf5

Using these 5 CART models, we need to come up with singe set of probability to belong to each of the salary classes. For simplicity, we will just take a mean of probabilities in this case study. Other than simple mean, we also consider vote method to come up with the final prediction. To come up with the final prediction let’s locate the following profile in each CART model :

1. Age : 35 years , 2, Gender : Male , 3. Highest Educational Qualification : Diploma holder, 4. Industry : Manufacturing, 5. Residence : Metro

For each of these CART model, following is the distribution across salary bands :

DF

The final probability is simply the average of the probability in the same salary bands in different CART models. As you can see from this analysis, that there is 70% chance of this individual falling in class 1 (less than $40,000) and around 24% chance of the individual falling in class 2.

 

End Notes

Random forest gives much more accurate predictions when compared to simple CART/CHAID or regression models in many scenarios. These cases generally have high number of predictive variables and huge sample size. This is because it captures the variance of several input variables at the same time and enables high number of observations to participate in the prediction. In some of the coming articles, we will talk more about the algorithm in more detail and talk about how to build a simple random forest on R.

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Tavish Srivastava
Tavish Srivastava

Tavish Srivastava, co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer of Analytics Vidhya, is an IIT Madras graduate and a passionate data-science professional with 8+ years of diverse experience in markets including the US, India and Singapore, domains including Digital Acquisitions, Customer Servicing and Customer Management, and industry including Retail Banking, Credit Cards and Insurance. He is fascinated by the idea of artificial intelligence inspired by human intelligence and enjoys every discussion, theory or even movie related to this idea.

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Responses From Readers

Clear

Suman
Suman

Enlightening

123

Anup
Anup

Very nice write up. My two cents. A fundamental problem with most empirical research is omitted correlated variables? How can analysts be sure that most (if not all) variables that explain the process are included? Also what happens if we choose subsets of variables and build predictive models? Wonder if we can use machine learning tools to deal with this. LASSO models with variable selection may be better than Random Forests (maybe) guess but again it is still based on the assumption that analysts can provide the entire universe of predictors (which is debatable), especially in the social sciences. Nevertheless, nice post and look forward to more here.

123

Pankaj
Pankaj

awesome !!! Thanks Man !!!

123

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